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With 2020 aloof annular the corner, we about-face the alarm aback to revisit 20 technology predictions fabricated about our approaching and ask if accomplished predictors absolutely had 2020 vision.
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Shortly afore his afterlife in 1993, music avant-garde Frank Zappa wrote in ‘The Real Frank Zappa Book’ that he saw a approaching in which music consumers would affluence their advance “in a axial processing area and accept them attainable by buzz or cable TV, anon patchable into the user’s home-taping appliances, with the advantage of absolute digital-to-digital transfer”.
Apple Music, Amazon Music, Spotify, YouTube Music, Tidal, Deezer, SoundCloud – agenda music alive casework are with us in affluence and Zappa was right.
In 1951, American chemist and Nobel laureate Glenn T. Seaborg appear his book ‘A Scientist Speaks Out’, in which he discussed the RAND Corporation’s anticipation that “by the year 2020, it may be accessible to brand able breed of animals, such as apes, that will be able of performing chiral labour”. Seaborg went on to adumbrate that apes would be bigger to robots aback it came to active cars and would comedy a role in abbreviation accidents.
While free cartage are one of today’s arising hot-ticket technologies, the abstraction of developing ape-driven vehicles, if it was anytime a austere one, seems acutely unlikely.
Way aback in the year 1900, aback the Ladies’ Home Journal capital predictions for the 21st century, the editors approached architect and babysitter of automated technology at the Smithsonian, John Elfreth Watkins Jr for his views. One of his predictions was that in the approaching “there will be no C, X, or Q in our accustomed alphabet. They will be abandoned because unnecessary.” He went on to say that we’d be application “condensed words cogent abridged ideas”.
The English alphabet still comprises 26 letters, as in Watkins’ day. Proposed reforms apriorism extending the alphabet to alter digraphs (such as ‘ch’) with absolutely new distinct letters.
In 1995, Newsweek agitated the commodity ‘The Internet? Bah!’, in which US astronomer Clifford Stoll said that he was “uneasy about this best contemporary and oversold community”, declaring “cyberspace isn’t, and never will be, Nirvana”. Stoll declared e-commerce as “boloney”, allurement “how appear my bounded capital does added business in an afternoon than the absolute Internet handles in a month?”
According to latest abstracts from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, all-around e-commerce stands at US$29tn (£26tn) per annum.
“In 2020, bodies access on Mars. It’s an amazing accident by any measure.” These are the words of Wired’s Peter Schwartz and Peter Leydon in their ‘History of the Future’ appear in 1997. They call how extensive Mars will advice us to accept that the “divisions we appoint on ourselves attending antic from afar. The abstraction of a planet of clashing nations, a accompaniment of diplomacy that authentic the antecedent century, makes no sense.”
ESA has abiding affairs to accelerate bodies to Mars but hasn’t congenital a spaceship yet. Meanwhile, Nasa is beneath presidential orders to acreage bodies on Mars by 2033. Watch this space.
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“By 2020, admiration the approaching will be commonplace for the boilerplate person,” said Cisco’s above arch futurist, Dave Evans, in the backward 1990s. His ‘Top 25 Technology Predictions’ accommodate the abstraction that “by 2050, US$1,000 (£810) account of accretion ability will according the processing ability of all animal accuracy on Earth”. Does his anticipation beggarly that he’s talked himself out of a job, and will approaching studies become a affair of the past?
Given that the Association of Professional Futurists has a associates of added than 500, from added than 40 countries, it seems there’s affluence of forecasting larboard in the tank.
In 1957, Popular Mechanics annual predicted that in the 21st century, every alley in America would be “replaced by a arrangement of aeriform tubes”. The abstraction was that the late-19th and early-20th-century abridged activity technology that saw aboriginal use in buzzer commitment over abbreviate distances – ‘pneumatic mail’ – could be scaled up for intercity car biking to save ammunition and accomplish active on anchorage a affair of the past.
A white cardboard on Elon Musk’s Hyperloop hypersonic aeriform alternation puts development costs for a large-diameter agent and commuter agent arrangement at $7.5bn (£6bn).
Hard admitting it ability be to butt today, in the mid-1990s Apple Inc was abandoned weeks abroad from defalcation as banal prices plummeted due, in part, to the abortion of the company’s Newton Personal Agenda Assistant (PDA) products. Dell CEO Michael Dell abundantly said: “What would I do? I’d shut it bottomward and accord the money aback to the shareholders.” Microsoft CTO Nathan Myhrvold ventured that “Apple is already dead”.
Apple Inc is the better technology aggregation in the apple by revenue. Its bazaar capitalisation of $1tn (£811m) is college than the GDP of 183 of the world’s 199 countries.
In the book ‘Shift 2020: How Technology Will Impact Our Future’ appear in 2014, Michael J O’Farrell of the Mobile Institute confidently writes: “In the awaiting nanomobility era, I adumbrate telepathy and teleportation will become accessible by the year 2020 – with both commonplace by 2040.” And although it’s not bright how or why this will become commonplace or by what technology, abridgement of acknowledging authentic affirmation agency the phenomena are admired as pseudoscience.
Nowhere. Austere scientists anticipate that both phenomena are inconsistent with the laws of physics and are in the branch of self-delusion and ambitious thinking.
Following American cryptographer David Chaum’s abstraction of an bearding cryptographic cyberbanking money alleged ‘ecash’, in 1999 American economist and Nobel Prize champ in Economic Sciences Milton Friedman predicted the “one affair that’s missing, but that will anon be developed… a reliable e-cash”. In added words, what we today see as decentralised agenda assets in the basic anatomy of cryptocurrency, untraceable by governments or banks.
Recent estimates advance there are added than 1,600 cryptocurrencies in actuality with a absolute bazaar capitalisation in balance of $100bn (£81.1bn). Bitcoin is the better at $41bn (£35.5bn).
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Friedman’s anticipation – “That affectionate of affair will advance on the Internet” – was atom on.
The abstraction of a aerial car has been with us anytime back the aboriginal Model T Ford formed off the assembly line. Henry Ford predicted we would one day be in aerial automobiles, and started to boggle with designs in 1923, still assertive his anticipation in 1940.
There are endless prototypes such as AeroMobil, X-Hawk, Terrafugia Transition, Skycar, Xplorair and SkyRider, but no assembly models yet.
In his 2005 book ‘The Singularity is Near: Aback Bodies Transcend Biology’, inventor-futurist Ray Kurzweil predicted that “Nanobots able of entering the bloodstream to ‘feed’ beef and abstract decay will abide (though not necessarily be in advanced use) by the end of 2020s. They will accomplish the accustomed approach of animal aliment burning obsolete.” Compelling being by the acknowledged science columnist on Amazon.
While nanorobotics is an arising technology field, they’re a continued way from feeding us.
In 1911, Thomas Edison predicted that: “The abode of the abutting aeon will be furnished with steel, at a sixth of the present cost… of animate so ablaze that it will be as accessible to move a cafe as it is today to lift a cartoon allowance chair.” He additionally said that books would be fabricated of bedding of nickel ten times thinner than paper, authoritative the Encyclopedia Britannica six inches thick.
With the apparent for stainless animate accepted in 1919, it has been with us for a aeon and is now all-over in our homes, but not how Edison thought.
In 2009, the Independent appear ‘The apple in 2020: A glimpse into the future’ in which it predicted that airports would radically change. “Paranoia about agitation has pushed aegis to new extremes: ‘naked’ X-ray apprehension technology has become the barometer at airports and apparent accoutrements are compulsory.”
We accept the technology, but due to aloofness issues you can (theoretically) debris a browse and opt for a ‘pat down’, while cellophane baggage charcoal a fashionable option.
“Blogs, Facebook, Twitter, argument letters and email are now apparent as middle-aged obsessions. People beneath the age of 25 like to allocution to their accompany directly,” predicted the Independent. This was allotment of a anticipation about how to affix Generation Z with balloter propaganda.
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No abruptness here. According to latest statistics from the Pew Research Centre, 18-29-year-olds are by far the heaviest users of amusing media.
In his 1998 book ‘Visions: How Science Will Revolutionize the 21st Century’, abstract physicist Michio Kaku predicted that by 2020 there would be wearable computers, based on his acceptance that Moore’s Law would still hold. He additionally predicted that computing, networking and analysis would breach abroad from their platforms to actualize acute spaces.
It’s no exaggeration to say that the era of ‘wearables’ is actuality to stay.
In 1911, Edison predicted the acknowledgment of alchemy, which includes the alteration of ‘base’ metals into ‘noble’ metals. He stated: “We are already on the border of advertent the abstruse of transmuting metals, which are all essentially the aforementioned in matter, admitting accumulated in altered proportions.”
Scientific American says: “All you charge is a atom accelerator, a all-inclusive accumulation of activity and an acutely low apprehension of how abundant gold you will end up with.”
In the 1980s, a accumulation of US schoolchildren were asked what the apple would be like in 2020. Thirteen-year-old Joe Garcia of Castlerock Junior High, Washington, showed acumen above his years: “Cameras will be all over the city… If [they] saw robbers or vandals, the computer would annihilate them.” There is no almanac of what Joe meant by “eliminate”, but we get the picture.
In London there are an estimated 500,000 CCTV cameras.
A BBC television programme fabricated in the 1960s alleged ‘Britain in the Future’ makes for quaint examination in that it overstates the acceleration of change. But on one accountable – televisions themselves – it has this to say: “We can apprehend the awning to get bigger, but the set to get abundant slimmer. In fact, it’s sometimes said now that it ability be possible to accomplish the television set so abbreviate that it could be afraid on the wall.”
To arise your flat-screen TV to a wall, you will charge a bracket. The all-around bazaar for the bank brackets abandoned is currently $3.4bn (£2.8bn). So, it’s safe to say that they’ve bent on.
In December 1900, John Elfreth Watkins Jr penned: ‘What may appear in the abutting 100 years’. Aback it came to trains, he had a nose for the future. “Trains will run two miles a minute, authentic trains 150 afar an hour. There will be cigar-shaped electric locomotives carriage forth trains of cars.”
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The top acceleration for a bartering alternation in the UK is 186mph (300km/h), while the average acceleration is 60-65mph (95-105km/h). For a all-embracing forecast, this is uncannily accurate.
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