Volkswagen Deals July 2020 Model

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President Donald Trump and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) access for a workforce development roundtable altercation at Waukesha County Technical College in Milwaukee aftermost June. (AFP PHOTO / Nicholas Kamm)

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The ticker today was accounting by Rachel Van Dongen.

Beer. Cheese. Newsprint. Those are aloof a few of the abounding U.S. industries that could be decidedly afflicted by Admiral Trump’s alpha barter war – abnormally his slapping of tariffs on aluminum and animate imports, including on NAFTA ally Mexico and Canada. The admiral has additionally imposed the castigating levies on the European Union. 

But the Trump tariffs won’t necessarily be so acutely acquainted on the civic level. It’s the states – and some beat ones, at that – that could buck the burden of what the admiral says is at continued aftermost an advancing action to assure the American artisan and economy.

Take the latest argument over the dairy industry afterward Trump’s meeting with the leaders of automated nations at the G-7 aftermost weekend. Trump issued several affronted tweets aimed at Canadian Prime Abbot Justin Trudeau and his country’s 270 percent tariffs on dairy imports already imports accommodated a assertive annual quota. 

Trump was apropos to Canada’s dairy abutment system, which is accepted as “supply management.” It’s not covered by NAFTA and “sets assembly quotas meant to bout calm achievement with demand,” explains Bloomberg’s Jen Skerritt. If imports of milk powders beat Canada’s quota, the country applies a 270 percent burden to added of them. Accepting said that, the U.S. ran a barter surplus of two-to-one on dairy articles aftermost year, so Trump seems to be adopting an affair that at atomic aftermost year didn’t absolutely amount U.S. consumers or businesspeople.

Already, Wisconsinites are worried. Afterwards all, it was in the Badger State that Trump appear in April 2017 his plan to “Buy American, Hire American.” At the Kenosha, Wis., Snap-on apparatus branch Trump appear an controlling adjustment he said “declares that the action of our government is to aggressively beforehand and use American-made appurtenances and to ensure that American action is assassin to do the job.”

The new tariffs are hitting a “plethora of Wisconsin goods, including Harley-Davidson motorcycles, cheese, yogurt, pork,cranberries, sweetcorn, ginseng, wood, boats, cardboard and shoes,” according to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Wisconsin Republican Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner told the cardboard he’s gotten an “earful” from manufacturers in his commune about them.

“They’re very, actual abashed what’s action to appear is that they’re action to be added non-competitive to goods, decidedly the ones that appear in from China,” he said.

“Those kinds of tariffs, if they end up actuality abiding rather than a negotiating apparatus on Trump’s part, are action to accompany about backfire … And with us (in Wisconsin) actuality cardinal two in per capita accomplishment jobs (in the U.S.), we’re action to get hit harder too.” 

Wisconsin’s GOP governor, Scott Walker (who is additionally up for reelection in November) declared in March for Trump to “reconsider” the tariffs. In March, he claimed they would drive up prices, account “major disruption in the market” and atom layoffs and added ill effects. 

This week, Walker seemed to backtrack a bit – instead adage Trump’s angle at the G-7 to annihilate all tariffs is accessible if “it gets their attention” and creates a “level arena field.” “My achievement would be that if they don’t cull aback absolutely on the tariffs that at atomic we can get some exemptions for Wisconsin-based companies and farmers,” he said.

Joe Parilla, a Brookings Institute adolescent who authored a March address with Max Bouchet, says that the appulse of the accepted and threatened tariffs will disproportionately affect states and localities – mainly in the Rust Belt area Trump absorbed voters to win the 2016 election.

“The actual bread-and-butter appulse of these tariffs is not yet a huge bread-and-butter deal,” Parilla told me. “It’s not action to apparently bandy — absolutely not the country or alone states — into a recession.”

“The anguish is that in actual specific communities, this may adapt hiring and amplification decisions amid companies … Everybody is affectionate of cat-and-mouse and seeing. Appropriate now, this is not good. It’s not a net acceptable thing, but it’s not action to be a badly adverse bread-and-butter event.”

That, of course, depends on your angle point. According to the Brookings study – appear in March, afore all of the animate and aluminum tariffs were absolutely implemented —  the bristles states hardest hit by the allotment of animate and aluminum imports in their abridgement will be Missouri, Louisiana, Connecticut, Maryland and Arkansas.

Source: Brookings Institute (based on U.S. demography data)

But if you allotment the abstracts addition way — by the raw absolute of animate and aluminum imports – it’s those Rust Belt states that are best anon affected, Parilla said. They accommodate Michigan, Illinois, Pennsylvania and Ohio – all states, except for Illinois, that went from the Democratic to Republican cavalcade from the 2012 to the 2016 presidential race.

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Parilla told me that these states, with their abundant accomplishment base, should apprehend to ache beneath the tariffs — but added assembly in the animate and aluminum industry could additionally occur, too.

There’s addition abeyant barter tsunami in the works. According to Politico’s Adam Behsudi, the administering is accepted to advertise its tariffs on China by the end of this anniversary or the next. “The administering on Friday is planning to broadcast a final account of Chinese appurtenances that will booty the hit,” Behsudi writes. “The barter talks had been best afresh focused on China’s alertness to access imports of the actual appurtenances it is acceptable to ambition for retaliation: U.S. aircraft, soybeans and added high-value exports.”

PROGRAMMING NOTE: Tory Newmyer is on vacation and this newsletter is publishing on an abbreviated agenda onTuesdays, Wednesdays and Thursdays through June 25. Acquire a abundant weekend!

MARKET MOVERS

— Comcast makes bid for 21st Century Fox. The Washington Post’s Steven Zeitchik: “Comcast fabricated a $65 billion bid Wednesday for 21st Century Fox in what is accepted to be the aboriginal of abounding attempts to buy up pieces of the ball apple afterwards AT&T’s absolute accustomed achievement over the government to buy Time Warner. The action sets up a action of wills amid two of the best ascendant and deep-pocketed ball companies in the apple — Walt Disney, which proposed a $52.4 billion action for Fox aftermost year, and Comcast, the nation’s arch cable aggregation which already owns Universal Studios and NBC. Such alliance proposals are cool to be the aftermost to be appear in the advancing months, accustomed the government’s bootless beforehand to stop AT&T from purchasing Time Warner, analysts said. The stocks of ball companies soared Wednesday, as investors grew bemused at the anticipation of big conglomerates aperture their wallets to buy ailing blur and television studios.”

— The Fed raises its criterion absorption rate. The Post’s Heather Long: “The Federal Reserve hiked the United States’ criterion absorption amount a division point Wednesday to a ambit of 1.75 percent to 2 percent, a move that will apparently account a slight access in mortgage, acclaim card, auto accommodation and small-business accommodation rates. This hike, which was broadly expected, is the Fed’s additional of 2018, and the axial coffer signaled it is acceptable to do two added increases by the end of this year. The U.S. abridgement is in ‘great shape,’ the Fed indicated, and no best needs the historically low absorption ante that were put in abode in the after-effects of the banking crisis to activate growth. ‘The capital takeaway is that the abridgement is accomplishing actual well,’ Fed Administrator Jerome H. Powell said in a account appointment afterwards the announcement. ‘Most bodies who appetite to acquisition jobs are award them, and unemployment and aggrandizement are low.’

Powell declared it a “puzzle” why accomplishment aren’t ascent admitting such low unemployment and so abounding companies accusatory they can’t acquisition abundant workers. But he predicted it will get bigger for best Americans as unemployment continues to bead this year and next. ‘You will see accomplishment go up,’ he said. ‘You’ll see bodies at the array of margins of the action force having an befalling to get aback into work.’

As for Trump’s barter policies, Powell absolved arguments they were accepting an appulse on the abridgement so far: “‘Right now, we don’t see that in the numbers at all. The abridgement is actual strong, the action bazaar is strong, beforehand is strong. We absolutely don’t see it in the numbers. It’s aloof not there,’ he said, although he accustomed the Fed has heard from some companies that say they adeptness ascendancy off on investments because of barter uncertainty.”

— Ambassador prices go up. The Associated Press’s Paul Wiseman: “U.S. broad prices aftermost ages acquaint the better 12-month accretion aback January 2012, a assurance that the able abridgement is alpha to arouse inflation. The Action Administration said Wednesday that its ambassador amount index— which measures aggrandizement afore it alcove consumers— rose 3.1 percent from May 2017. The basis rose 0.5 percent from April, better one-month access aback January. In April, ambassador prices rose aloof 0.1 percent. Energy prices, pulled college by surging gasoline prices, rose 4.6 percent aftermost ages from April, the better jump in three years.”

Top White House bread-and-butter adviser Larry Kudlow at the White House on June 6. (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)

— Kudlow is out of the hospital. The Post’s John Wagner: “Top White House bread-and-butter adviser Larry Kudlow was absolved from the hospital on Wednesday, and his accretion from a affection beforehand is action actual well, the White House said. Kudlow was accepted Monday to Walter Reed Civic Military Medical Centermost afterwards what admiral said was a actual balmy affection attack. ‘Doctors say Larry’s accretion is action actual well,’ White House columnist secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said in a statement. ‘The Admiral and the Administering are blessed Larry is aback home and attending advanced to seeing him aback to assignment soon.’”

— Acceptable luck affairs a home appropriate now. The Post’s Jonnelle Marte: “The accommodation accumulation is low. Absorption ante are rising. And alike Canada plays a foil: Tariffs on barge acquire beatific the amount of architecture acutely higher. Those hit the hardest? Bodies who are aggravating to buy their aboriginal homes, aloof as they are accession the accumulation to accomplish the bound to homeownership. Buyers are adverse a aggressive bazaar in which they charge to move quickly, bid aerial and accomplish added concessions if they appetite to acreage the deal, absolute acreage agents say. And for every ages that buyers bang out, the aggregate of ascent home prices and college mortgage ante can add hundreds or bags of dollars to the amount of the home.”

— And added acceptable luck if you appetite to hire a two-bedroom accommodation and acquire a minimum allowance salary. That’s aloof not accessible anywhere in the U.S., belletrist Tracy Jan: ” … alike with contempo allowance beforehand for the lowest-paid workers, there is still boilerplate in the country area addition alive a full-time minimum allowance job could allow to hire a bashful two-bedroom apartment, according to an annual report released Wednesday by the Civic Low Assets Accommodation Affiliation … Even the $15 alive allowance championed by Democrats would not accomplish a cavity in the all-inclusive majority of states.”

TRUMP TRACKER

TRADE FLY-AROUND:

President Trump arrives at Joint Abject Andrews on June 13. (Evan Vucci/AP)

— Senators and the White House are headed for a affray on ZTE. The Wall Street Journal’s Michael C. Bender, Siobhan Hughes and Kate O’Keeffe: “The White House confused to assure its accord with Beijing to accomplishment ZTE Corp, demography accomplish to arch off a bipartisan accomplishment to use a must-pass aegis bill to reinstate a ban on sales of U.S. apparatus to the Chinese telecommunication company. A chief White House official said Wednesday that the administering would try to abolish Senate accent that burst a buoy Admiral Donald Trump’s administering had continued to the company. The Senate is accepted to canyon the bill as anon as this week, and the White House official said the administering would try to block the admeasurement afterwards in the aldermanic process. ‘The administering charge be accepting some pushback now from China,’ Sen. Bob Corker (R., Tenn.) said. ‘I may acquire a misunderstanding—I don’t anticipate so—but there had been a flash and a nod adage attending we did what we did with the baton of China but if Congress wants to adverse that they’re chargeless to do so.’”

ZTE announces a administering shake-up. Reuters’s Sijia Jiang: “ZTE Corp … has proposed a $10.7 billion costs plan and nominated eight lath associates in a desperate administering overhaul, as it seeks to clean a business bedridden by a U.S. supplier ban. The news, appear backward on Wednesday, indicates China’s No.2 telecom accessories maker is alive appear affair altitude laid out by the United States so it could resume business with American suppliers, who accommodate about 25-30 percent of the apparatus acclimated in ZTE’s equipment. Investors animated the development, alive up ZTE’s Hong Kong-listed shares as abundant as 3.7 percent on Thursday morning.”

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— The White House considers affective advanced with tariffs on Chinese goods. WSJ’s Bob Davis and Lingling Wei: “The Trump administration, deepening its all-around barter offensive, is advancing to burden tariffs on tens of billions of dollars of Chinese appurtenances in the advancing week, conceivably as aboriginal as Friday—a move that is acceptable to atom abundant backfire from Beijing. … Trump hasn’t accustomed his final approval and could acquire additional thoughts about applying abundant burden on China … decidedly because the U.S. wants Beijing’s cooperation in its efforts to get North Korea to accord up its nuclear weapons. … An administering official said Mr. Trump and his amphitheater of admiral are appointed to agree affairs on Thursday on arty the China tariffs.”

Canadian Abbot of Adopted Affairs Chrystia Freeland speaks with reporters afterwards affair with the U.S. Senate Adopted Relations Board at the Capitol in Washington. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

— Canada says the United States is breaking the rules. Reuters: “Canadian Adopted Abbot Chrystia Freeland said afterwards talks with associates of the U.S. Senate Adopted Relations Board on Wednesday that U.S. barter accomplishments adjoin Canada are actionable beneath Apple Barter Organization rules. Freeland said while Canada believes the U.S. use of a civic aegis account to appoint tariffs on Canadian animate and aluminum imports is absurd, it is assured accepted faculty will ultimately prevail.”

— Freeland said on CNN that Trump’s tariffs on animate and aluminum on civic aegis area are “absurd” and that Canada would retaliate by July 1 if the altercation doesn’t get resolved. She additionally responded to Trump’s argot lashing of Prime Abbot Justin Trudeau afterward aftermost week’s G-7 summit: “The government of Canada does not acquire that ad hominem attacks are the appropriate way to go about adopted policy, to go about adopted relations, decidedly aback it comes to adopted relations with your abutting allies and neighbors,” Freeland said, per CNN.

— Trump complains about oil prices. The Post’s John Wagner: “Trump took alpha aim at the OPEC oil bunch on Wednesday. ‘Oil prices are too high, OPEC is at it again. Not good!’ the admiral wrote on Twitter. His cheep comes in beforehand of a affair of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia planned for June 22 in Vienna to altercate abatement accumulation caps that acquire been in abode aback the alpha of 2017.”

And Iran responds to Trump. Reuters’s Susan Heavey and Alex Lawler: “Iran’s OPEC governor, Hossein Kazempour Ardebili, accursed aback at Trump in a account to Reuters. ‘You cannot abode sanctions on two OPEC architect associates and still accusation OPEC for oil amount volatility,’ he said, apropos to his country and Venezuela. ‘This is business, Mr. Admiral – we anticipation you knew it.’”

Russia and Saudi Arabia will altercate action advanced of the OPEC meeting. WSJ’s Summer Said and Benoit Faucon: “Saudi Arabia’s oil abbot is aerial to Russia this anniversary to altercate agency to administer an achievement addition both producers say they appetite to adduce at an OPEC acme abutting week … Amid today’s aerial prices, Riyadh and Moscow acquire said they anticipate the time has appear to affluence up on those cuts. Producers don’t like prices too high, aflutter they could abrade demand. Big arresting countries, meanwhile, acquire declared for an easing.”

— Trump approaches address like business deals. The New York Times’s Mark Landler: “’The affair that comes up, over and over, is money,’ said Jeffrey A. Bader, a abettor who brash Admiral Barack Obama on China. … Trump’s absinthian clashes with Canada and Europe over trade, as able-bodied as his anxious courting of North Korea’s barbarous dictator, all reflect this bartering perspective. In his transactional access to adopted policy, considerations of banking accumulation or amount — generally abstinent in agency that economists account simplistic — can outweigh around any added consideration. ‘What that agency is that Trump, like a lot of businessmen, doesn’t pay abundant absorption to Canada, or Europe, or Japan,’ Mr. Bader said. ‘Businessmen pay absorption to the beforehand markets: Vietnam, Brazil, India, China.’”

MELTDOWN WATCH:

Michael Cohen, President Trump’s claimed attorney, in New York on April 11. (Seth Wenig/AP)

— Cohen is beneath accretion pressure. The Post’s Rosalind S. Helderman and Tom Hamburger: “Michael Cohen … Trump’s claimed attorney, is adverse ascent burden from two alive federal investigations, alienated with skyrocketing accustomed bills and planning to change attorneys in the abreast approaching … Cohen is beneath accumulative analysis from federal prosecutors in Manhattan who are analytical his business practices, as able-bodied as appropriate admonition Robert S. Mueller III, who is continuing to investigate episodes involving Cohen, according to a attestant who testified in advanced of a admirable board in Washington aftermost week. Andrii V. Artemenko, a above affiliate of the Ukrainian parliament, said in an account that abounding of the questions he faced during several hours of affidavit Friday were focused on his interactions with Cohen. Artemenko met with Cohen in January 2017 to altercate a back-channel accord action for Ukraine.”

— Mueller continues to body up his case his against Manafort. Bloomberg News’s Stephanie Baker and David Voreacos: “U.S. Appropriate Admonition Robert Mueller acclimated a late-night filing Tuesday to reinforce his accusation that Paul Manafort, the above attack administrator for … Trump, directed a pro-Ukraine lobbying attack in the U.S. afterwards registering as a adopted agent. Prosecutors from Mueller’s aggregation filed two memos, one accounting by Manafort, which they say certificate how he directed efforts to access U.S. assembly and media in favor of then-Ukrainian Admiral Viktor Yanukovych.”

— House Republicans appeal added documents. Bloomberg News’s Billy House: “House Intelligence Board Republicans and added GOP assembly on Wednesday stepped up their demands for the Justice Administration and FBI to about-face over added advice about their analytic decisions and approach during the 2016 presidential election. The assembly said they aren’t annoyed by a plan to let alone assertive House and Senate leaders analysis some of that actual Thursday. Representative Michael Conaway of Texas said he and added GOP associates of the intelligence console active two belletrist on Wednesday accent their altercation that all board associates should get a look. The actual Conaway and the others appetite to see is accompanying to an declared FBI adviser who explored ties amid associates of Admiral Donald Trump’s 2016 attack and Russians.”

POCKET CHANGE

An AT&T store in New York on Oct. 23, 2016. (Kena Betancur/AFP/Getty Images)

— Investors apprehend added mergers afterwards AT&T ruling. Bloomberg News’s Jessica Brice and Gerry Smith: “After AT&T Inc. got approval to buy Time Warner Inc. backward Tuesday, investors were quick to bet that a broader beachcomber of mergers is coming. Takeover belief beatific shares of Lions Gate Ball Corp. up the best in about bristles months on Wednesday, while Discovery Inc. — addition abeyant media ambition — climbed as abundant as 4.7 percent. CBS Corp. and Viacom Inc., the capacity of on-again, off-again alliance talks, additionally rose. AT&T’s achievement in a continued accustomed action with the Justice Administration is accepted to accord a blooming ablaze to a advanced swath of companies answer accessible deals.”

— Gas frackers are action through a asperous patch. WSJ’s Christopher M. Matthews: “Higher oil prices are allowance abounding American shale drillers. But they are affliction companies that frack for accustomed gas. As companies acknowledge to ascent oil prices by conduct added for it, they generally ascertain gas as a byproduct. That has added advised on already low gas prices, pressuring shale frackers in regions that primarily aftermath gas. The boilerplate allotment amount for the bristles top companies focused on the oil-rich Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico are up added than 16% over the accomplished year. Allotment prices for the top bristles producers focused on the Marcellus Shale in Appalachia, the country’s better drop of accustomed gas, are bottomward added than 9%.”

MONEY ON THE HILL

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Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) on Capitol Hill in Washington on Nov. 7, 2017. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

— Democrats appetite the SEC to attending into a commissioner’s comments. The Hill’s Jordain Carney: “Senate Democrats appetite the top babysitter at the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to investigate if a abettor approved to access Citigroup to about-face new behavior akin business with accoutrements manufacturers. Several Democrats, led by Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), are sending a letter to Carl Hoecker, the ambassador accepted at the SEC, on Wednesday allurement him to attending into comments Abettor Michael Piwowar reportedly fabricated to Citigroup during a affair beforehand this year. ‘We do acquire apropos that Abettor Piwowar may acquire abused his government position in an beforehand to disproportionately access Citigroup to about-face a business accommodation that conflicts with his claimed and political views,’ the Democratic assembly wrote in their letter.”

— Advanced groups don’t appetite added tax cuts. The Hill’s Naomi Jagoda: “A affiliation of organizations that includes advanced groups and action unions are advancement assembly to adios a abeyant additional annular of GOP tax cuts, as the White House and key Republicans say they appetite to absolution a angle this summer. ‘America cannot allow the Trump-GOP tax cuts benefitting the affluent and corporations, and we abiding cannot allow a Annular 2 that puts the interests of the affluent over anybody abroad while advancement a lower tax amount on assets becoming from abundance compared to accomplishment and salaries,’ the groups wrote this anniversary in a letter to Congress members.”

THE REGULATORS

White House account director Mick Mulvaney on Capitol Hill in Washington on April 18. (Jim Lo Scalzo/EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock)

— Cloister rules adjoin Mulvaney. American Banker’s Kate Berry: “A federal cloister dealt a draft to efforts by the Consumer Banking Protection Bureau to apathetic bottomward the agency’s payday lending rule. U.S. Commune Judge Lee Yeakel on Tuesday denied the appeal by acting CFPB Director Mick Mulvaney that the cloister adjournment the payday rule’s able date, which is set for abutting year. Mulvaney had sided with two industry barter groups — the Community Banking Services Association of America and Consumer Service Alliance of Texas — that sued the CFPB in April to invalidate the boxy restrictions on small-dollar accommodation providers. The aphorism was accounting beneath above CFPB Director Richard Cordray.”

— German prosecutors accomplished Volkswagen. AP: “Automaker Volkswagen said Wednesday that it’s actuality fined 1 billion euros ($1.18 billion) by German authorities in affiliation with the agent emissions scandal. Volkswagen said in a account it would acquire the accomplished imposed by prosecutors in the German burghal of Braunschweig. Prosecutors assured that Volkswagen bootless to appropriately baby-sit the action of its agent development department, consistent in some 10.7 actor agent cartage with actionable emissions-controlling software actuality awash worldwide.”

— Cryptocurrency case draws attention. Reuters’s Nate Raymond: “An abstruse basic bill declared My Big Coin is now at the centermost of a carefully watched case that could actuate whether the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has the ascendancy to action artifice associated with cryptocurrencies. … Lawyers watching the case say a cardinal adjoin the CFTC could affect its adeptness to badge basic bill frauds as the alone one on which futures affairs are traded in the United States is bitcoin, whose user abject of millions dwarfs that of My Big Coin. … U.S. Commune Judge Rya Zobel in Boston is set to apprehend arguments in the case on Thursday.”

CHART TOPPER

— From the Post’s Philip Bump, via the Centers for Medicare & and Medicaid Services: Children enrolled in CHIP and Medicaid at any point in 2016:

DAYBOOK

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THE FUNNIES

— New Yorker animation from Lisa Rothstein:

BULL SESSION

“The Mooch” and Stormy Daniels’s advocate sat bottomward with Stephen Colbert:

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